NWS disscusion from Upton NY
Posted by
Fred on 8/30/2010, 7:31 pm
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HURRICANE EARL
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
THE QUESTIONS ARE WHERE EXACTLY WILL THE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE SET UP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND HOW STRONG/SHARP
WILL THE APPROACHING 500 HPA TROUGH BE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE ANSWER TO THESE QUESTIONS...ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE EARL ON ITS SURROUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH IS VERY HARD TO
PREDICT...WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE EARL WILL GO.
FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST AND ALL GUIDANCE TAKE THE CENTER OF EARL
EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
INDICATING THE CENTER WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND OR EAST OF
40N/70W.
ONCE EARL IS PULLING AWAY ON FRIDAY...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT.
SO TO RECAP...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE
LAST DRY/HOT DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SE TO NW...WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA...DRY FAR NW CORNER OF THE
CWA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN.
FRIDAY...CHANCE POPS WITH EARL AT ITS CLOSEST. FOLLOWED NHC WIND
FORECAST WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND EASTERN CT. HIGHS AROUND 80 EAST AND LOWER AND MID 80S
WEST... HIGHEST FROM NYC WEST.
SWELLS FROM EARL LIKELY WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BY
FRIDAY. LARGE BATTERING WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA BEACHES. THOSE
SWELLS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK ON EARL PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY AND LOWER TO MID
70S ON SUNDAY.
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