| Track: 3 Day: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204314.shtml?3day?large#contents 5 Day: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204314.shtml?5day?large#contents ------------------ HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 ...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA --------------------------- HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. THIS SHEAR IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.0N 68.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 72.8W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 74.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 75.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 36.0N 73.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 44.0N 65.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 56.0N 55.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |