Re: JAC
Posted by JAC on 8/31/2010, 10:39 pm
MarkoNY:

Thanks for asking.

I just got in a little while ago, so I am still trying to figure things out.

Things I see so far:

1)  Still recovering from the EWRC.  Microwave shows only a half eyewall on the north quad.

2)  The dry air on WV is not all that bad.  Lifted Index is running around -4 inside it; meaning that the air is unstable and will support continued convection.

3)  Dry air has not penetrated the core.

4)  Core temp has the ability to support a Cat 5 however outflow channels are not currently setup for that.

5)  The big thing right now is how it is interacting with the UL trough to the NW.  It is actually mixing with it now.  

6)  Other thing is Fiona.  It may do a Fuji spin with it and could kick Earl a little more west.  This and the UL trough could adjust the track a little more west.  Need to wait and see, especially if he spins up stronger.

7)  Need to watch the TUTT that drives the poleward outflow channel.  As it positions itself more east of Earl it could happen and Earl could intensify.

8)  Jim's update was dead on with the Great Lakes shortwave curving Earl out to sea as it approaches Long Island.  Last I saw in GFS this morning was it is going to dig deep as a negative tilt and even turn into a cutoff low.  This I am not all that sure about yet.  Sitting here in Indiana, air is warm but not unstable.  So far I can not see a really deep low spinning from the shortwave.  I will be paying very careful attention to this in the next couple days.  Timing on it will be very critical as well.

9)  98L could get hammered by shear.  Need to look a little more closely to say for sure.  Looking at Earl too much.

10)  Next wave coming off Africa end of this week could be major.  Already setting up same like when Danielle came off the coast.


If you like, I'll post more as things change.





















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JAC - MarkoNY, 8/31/2010, 10:08 pm
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