Earl 8am
Posted by 1969 on 9/3/2010, 8:08 am




HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM
SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON
ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N  74.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N  74.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  74.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.8N  72.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N  68.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 45.9N  64.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 50.7N  60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N  74.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT
IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z.  THE
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  EARL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR.


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Earl 8am - 1969, 9/3/2010, 8:08 am
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