9/6 4AM CDT NHC Discussion and Track
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/6/2010, 4:58 am
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/084914.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents
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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
NOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS
A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE
OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 21.6N 95.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN |
109
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