Gaston Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 9/6/2010, 9:10 am
The disturbance continues to have a well defined circulation with spiral of low level cumulus rotating around a large vigorous vortex through 700mb. This system has the potential to intensify at any moment. However, very dry stable air continues to follow and this is combined with 15-20kts of easterly shear.
Guidance continues to show the current marginal pattern to persist for another 24hrs. Thereafter, an upper level high is forecast to build over the system across the eastern carib with along with a higher supply of moisture. Although there's a chance that he runs through PR / DR in a few days, my concern is most of the model suite take the system south of the great antilles across the extremely warm waters of the carib under a low shear environment.
Note: All this vortex needs is lower shear and some moisture and with the high OHC in the central / western carib this could become very strong (Model LGEM |
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Gaston Analysis - Jake, 9/6/2010, 9:10 am
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