CAT 1
Posted by
JAC on 9/16/2010, 11:03 am
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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