Re: Current Steering
Posted by
JAC on 9/22/2010, 9:39 am
It is based on what is called potential vorticity (PV) advection.
This method is what has evolved the art of TC track forecasting to where it is today and making tracking forecasting accurate.
It was a quantum leap in track forecasting when this method began to be employed.
What it is showing is how the strength of the vorticity of the TC interacts with its surroundings and as a result how the TC itself gets steered as a result.
Different maps are for different TC vorticity intensities.
What I am showing is for something around TD/TS strength.
This is the current estimate.
The vectors indicate the anticipated short-term track direction and the shading, the strength of that push.
95L is at red, so a good chance a TD or TS in 24 hrs.
The maps will change over time and intensity of the TC.
Need to watch this on a daily basis as it evolves.
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In this thread:
Cut the Madness -
JAC,
9/22/2010, 7:23 am- Afternoon spaghetti - JAC, 9/22/2010, 5:12 pm
- W wind out of Caracas, Venezuela - ArgosyTn, 9/22/2010, 4:11 pm
- Re: W wind out of Caracas, Venezuela - ArgosyTn, 9/22/2010, 4:59 pm
- Re: W wind out of Caracas, Venezuela - JAC, 9/22/2010, 4:53 pm
- Re: W wind out of Caracas, Venezuela - JAC, 9/22/2010, 4:26 pm
- Re: W wind out of Caracas, Venezuela - JAC, 9/22/2010, 4:22 pm
- Re: Cut the Madness - wxboy34, 9/22/2010, 2:51 pm
- TC Formation Alert went up on NRL - JAC, 9/22/2010, 1:05 pm
- Re: Cut the Madness - ArgosyTn, 9/22/2010, 11:08 am
- Fresh Euro Ensembles just in - JAC, 9/22/2010, 10:34 am
- HPC Discussion for our Official-Casters - JAC, 9/22/2010, 10:11 am
- Current Steering - JAC, 9/22/2010, 9:28 am
- Early Track - Doorman, 9/22/2010, 9:06 am
- Re: Cut the Madness - DTB_2009, 9/22/2010, 8:54 am
- Re: Cut the Madness - maxdog, 9/22/2010, 8:31 am
- ECMWF vs GFS - CypressTX, 9/22/2010, 7:39 am
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