| TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 82.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |