Not a "could be" but "is"
Posted by JAC on 10/19/2010, 7:24 am
 WTPN31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 118.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 118.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.1N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.5N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.3N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.9N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.7N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.9N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 118.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED. THE SAME ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 96, THEN DEFLECT WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS TAIWAN AND ECMWF FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION STAYS WITH CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE POLEWARD MOTION ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NM DIAMETER IRREGULAR EYE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 182321Z TRMM 37H IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND STRONG CORE CONVECTION OVER ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 72 TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. B. TY 15W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24-72 BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN STR, WHICH HAS SHIFTED WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND EVIDENCE OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE DATA) HAS SUBSEQUENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A STAIR-STEP PATTERN. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN) PLUS WBAR NOW SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS INDICATES A SHARP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS SLP FIELDS INDICATES POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FORMING NORTHEAST OF LUZON; A LOBE OF LOWER PRESSURES EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TY 15W IS EVIDENT AS WELL AS THE INTERACTION. THIS TRACK IS DEEMED AS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STEERING STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING WESTERN STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 72. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 96.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
Hong Kong could be under the gun - JAC, 10/18/2010, 1:07 pm
- RI Underway - JAC, 10/19/2010, 4:47 pm
- Re: Not a "could be" but "is" - JAC, 10/19/2010, 7:28 am
- Re: Not a "could be" but "is" - Anung Mwka, 10/19/2010, 10:56 am
- Re: Not a "could be" but "is" - JAC, 10/19/2010, 7:28 am
- Core shaping up - JAC, 10/19/2010, 7:09 am
- Large eye - JAC, 10/19/2010, 7:36 am
- Re: Hong Kong could be under the gun - knuckle, 10/18/2010, 1:21 pm
- Bwahahaha! (N/T - karen, 10/18/2010, 4:32 pm
- LOL - JAC, 10/18/2010, 1:34 pm
- Re: LOL - Anung Mwka, 10/18/2010, 6:20 pm
- Likely to ramp up quickly when hits the water - JAC, 10/18/2010, 1:09 pm
- Didn't take long to start kickin butt --> Hot Towers in the feeder bands - JAC, 10/18/2010, 4:42 pm
- Re: Didn't take long to start kickin butt --> Hot Towers in the feeder bands - Fred, 10/18/2010, 9:05 pm
- Re: Didn't take long to start kickin butt --> Hot Towers in the feeder bands - Chris in Tampa, 10/18/2010, 7:21 pm
- TUTT anchored to the east --> venting Megi - JAC, 10/18/2010, 1:11 pm
- Didn't take long to start kickin butt --> Hot Towers in the feeder bands - JAC, 10/18/2010, 4:42 pm
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