Giri in BOB: Major landfall forecast for Myanmar
Posted by JAC on 10/22/2010, 7:53 am









WTIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 006    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  220600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 93.0E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 93.0E
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  221800Z --- 20.2N 94.0E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  230600Z --- 21.6N 95.1E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  231800Z --- 23.2N 96.4E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 93.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT SIX KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM EYE, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC GIRI IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC GIRI
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
HUNTERS BAY AND COMBERMERE BAY BETWEEN 22/12Z AND 22/18Z. TC GIRI IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF MAYANMAR AND WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN






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Giri in BOB: Major landfall forecast for Myanmar - JAC, 10/22/2010, 7:53 am
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