CaneTalk: Euro & GFS have a bead on a low-riding CV wave --> spins up in Carib mid next week

Euro & GFS have a bead on a low-riding CV wave --> spins up in Carib mid next week

Posted by JAC on 10/25/2010, 7:00 am

Rather unusual this time of year; but, given the fact this is Euro & GFS confirms, worth keeping an eye on it.

The STR is forecast to build an Azore and Bermuda High.
MSLP is forecast to be low in the Carib.

A trop wave is currently at 25W.
90L is interacting with a hugh UL low and generating a large area of deep convection.
Technically, that convection will generate a negative moist potential vorticity (NMPV) in the upper troposphere.
The NMPV would most likely linger in the area and could help the 25W wave stay as a protected pouch and move west without feeling the effects of shear or dry air.
If it doesn't get whacked by the time it gets in the Carib, with low surface pressures, there may indeed be a chance for a spin up.

Wait and see.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2010102500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

358

In this thread:

Euro & GFS have a bead on a low-riding CV wave --> spins up in Carib mid next week - JAC, 10/25/2010, 7:00 am

Heating Up - Check 40W - JAC, 10/27/2010, 6:11 am
- Strong CAPE - JAC, 10/27/2010, 6:51 am
- Latest Scat - JAC, 10/27/2010, 6:37 am
  - Re: Latest Scat - Target, 10/27/2010, 9:35 am
    - How about a 91L and a 92L? - Target, 10/27/2010, 10:21 am
      - 27N41W, 25N55W, and 10N42W - Target, 10/27/2010, 10:32 am
        Re: 27N41W, 25N55W, and 10N42W - JAC, 10/27/2010, 11:59 am
        27N41W, 25N55W, and 10N42W - Target, 10/27/2010, 9:45 pm
        91L looking good - JAC, 10/27/2010, 9:52 pm
        HWRF: Hurricane by Lesser Antilles - Target, 10/28/2010, 10:07 am
        Re: HWRF: Hurricane by Lesser Antilles - JAC, 10/28/2010, 10:14 am
        Re: HWRF: Hurricane by Lesser Antilles - Target, 10/28/2010, 10:25 am
- FIS pretty much like yesterday - JAC, 10/27/2010, 6:22 am
- CMC has it initialized and running the SA Coast - JAC, 10/27/2010, 6:17 am
  - Same deal for Euro - JAC, 10/27/2010, 6:20 am
10/26 00Z Runs: CMC & FIS - JAC, 10/26/2010, 7:46 am
- 10N40W (Wave!) - Target, 10/26/2010, 9:38 am
JAC? - jotay3, 10/25/2010, 5:19 pm
- Re: JAC? - JAC, 10/25/2010, 9:28 pm
12Z CMC beginning to nibble on it early - JAC, 10/25/2010, 2:37 pm
- Riding the Coast - JAC, 10/25/2010, 2:38 pm
06Z GFS Spins up Saturday - JAC, 10/25/2010, 12:21 pm
The low roll - JAC, 10/25/2010, 12:09 pm
- Good convection and moisture - JAC, 10/25/2010, 12:12 pm
  - Re: Good convection and moisture - freesong, 10/25/2010, 11:45 pm
for all of u - BobbiStorm, 10/25/2010, 11:23 am
- Re: for all of u - JAC, 10/25/2010, 11:46 am
Re: Euro & GFS have a bead on a low-riding CV wave --> spins up in Carib mid next week - BobbiStorm, 10/25/2010, 10:37 am
FIM very aggressive 144 hrs out - JAC, 10/25/2010, 7:30 am
- 200 Hrs Out - JAC, 10/25/2010, 7:37 am
  - Will be interesting to see how this model pans out - JAC, 10/25/2010, 7:49 am
    - Re: Will be interesting to see how this model pans out - AlligatorPointer, 10/25/2010, 6:14 pm
Dynamic Tropopause 180 Hrs Out - JAC, 10/25/2010, 7:07 am

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