970mb Low over Midwest
Posted by
JAC on 10/26/2010, 7:13 am
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI/ERN IL/INDIANA/WRN OH/SERN MO/ERN AR/WRN AND CENTRAL KY/NRN MS/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 719...720...721... VALID 261100Z - 261300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 719...720...721...CONTINUES. ARCING BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MN/IA/MO ATTM. A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY -- FUELING THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE VERY STRONG FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE IS AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BAND -- AND THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING -- AND MAY INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY AS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CELLULAR CONVECTION INCREASES. WITH THE MOST EWD PORTION OF THE ARCING BAND OF STORMS -- NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION -- SHIFTING EWD AT 40 KT...STORMS WILL NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF TORNADO WATCHES 720 AND 721 AROUND 13Z. THIS WILL REQUIRE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 10/26/2010
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EASTERN ILLINOIS INDIANA NORTHERN KENTUCKY SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 175 MILES PER HOUR...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...WILL ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO BANDS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TODAY OVER THE OH AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI.. 10/26/2010
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In this thread:
970mb Low over Midwest - JAC, 10/26/2010, 7:13 am- Re: 970mb Low over Midwest - Fred, 10/28/2010, 8:00 am
- Record-breaking Pressures - Tim_NC, 10/27/2010, 12:30 am
- Heavy Damage Cridersville OH - JAC, 10/26/2010, 4:01 pm
- Tornado siren going now - Arborist, 10/26/2010, 12:31 pm
- Torando Damage - Chicago Area - JAC, 10/26/2010, 11:01 am
- Re: 970mb Low over Midwest - Fred, 10/26/2010, 8:46 am
- Watch North MS - JAC, 10/26/2010, 7:53 am
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