San Juan Discussion
Posted by JAC on 10/29/2010, 4:08 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC-TPW SHOWED EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT
VALUES (GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES) IN ASSOCIATION TO THE VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...
THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SATURDAY WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK
AND INTENSITY ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM
DURING THIS WEEKEND...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJSJ...AND TJBQ AT
LEAST THROUGH 29/16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VCSH
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS TIST..TIST...TKPK...AND TNCM. WINDS
WILL MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS...ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE WHEN THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.


85
In this thread:
Tomas - JAC, 10/29/2010, 2:57 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.