Hurricane hunters find Tomas weaker but still forecast to strengthen...hurricane watch for Jamaica
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/2/2010, 4:57 pm
5 Day Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204614.shtml?5day?large#contents






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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THE
STORM WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

THE CONTINUED WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST LACK OF STRENGTHENING...OF
TOMAS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 12 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TOMAS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 5...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND.
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.5N  74.6W    35 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  75.6W    40 KT
24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.2N  76.6W    50 KT
36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N  77.0W    60 KT
48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.3N  76.7W    70 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.1N  74.8W    85 KT
96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  72.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  70.5W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN






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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TOMAS WEAKER BUT STILL FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 74.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TOMAS.  TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THESE
AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Hurricane hunters find Tomas weaker but still forecast to strengthen...hurricane watch for Jamaica - Chris in Tampa, 11/2/2010, 4:57 pm
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