Bobbi
Posted by
JAC on 11/3/2010, 12:14 pm
Thanks very much for the great compliment, however I don't think I deserve it.
Jim sure does deserve it though.
Yes, I have been watching the TX UL Low all morning.
A few things to point out:
1) It looks like it is helping to ventilate Tomas. You can see a strong jet over Hispaniola, PR, and then diving SE. Could help him spin back up.
2) Center may be reforming to the east of NHC's current Best Track position. Will know a lot more after this afternoon's recon.
I think one way or the other the scoop will pick him up and move him NE over Haiti.
The dynamical tropopause forecast shows the UL low moving NE and stretching out as a trough and grabbing Tomas.
More than likely he will go Extra-Trop north in the Bahamas.
After that, it is yet to be determined.
One thing to think about is he could break off and do a loop around moving back SW toward PR.
Euro is hinting at that possibility.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2010110300&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
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