99W Bay of Bengal
Posted by JAC on 11/4/2010, 12:30 pm
Looks like a significant cyclone could hit SE India in about 78 hr.

Trop Cyclone Formation Alert Posted

Core is narrow compared to what is usually seen in BOB.

This could spin up fast.  Moving over 29C water.













WTIO21 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031451ZNOV2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 90.9E TO 9.6N 86.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
90.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STALLED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST DAY. CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO YIELD
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION GREATER THAN 2.0, OR 30 KNOTS, FROM PGTW.
UNTIL THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, MOVING NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH AND CONVECTION WILL
STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTER. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR, BUT
IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY, NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER VWS. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051500Z.//
NNNN








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99W Bay of Bengal - JAC, 11/4/2010, 12:30 pm
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