NWS Tallahassee, Fla. forecast discussion ....
Posted by
chucky7777 on 12/22/2010, 11:31 pm
.....NWS Tallahassee.......LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...INTERESTING FORECAST
DEVELOPING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT
AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DURING SATURDAY LEAD TO LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF TWO
IMPORTANT SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND A SECOND IS PROGGED TO BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST WILL BE ORGANIZING NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST AND PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NE GULF LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS RATHER
HIGH...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ON OUR REGION WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PHASING SEEN BETWEEN OUR TWO
SHORTWAVES.
GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF CHRISTMAS DAY INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT...HOWEVER THE
QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ALSO THE GFS WOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR
MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR SPILLING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ONLY PRESENT A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP OVER OUR
NORTHERN/NW ZONES. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A MORE DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER PRECIP EVENT. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO CONCERNING
SINCE A DEEPENING SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE DEFINED DEFORMATION
ZONE/FGEN PRECIP BAND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH NO LACK OF
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STILL TOO EARLY...AND
CONFIDENCE A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE FROZEN PRECIP IN THE GRIDS...BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE OTHER GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION.............
LONG TERM...MROCZKA/HARRIGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...EVANS
REST OF DISCUSSION...HARRIGAN
|
33
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.