Next System around the 8th?
Posted by JAC on 12/28/2010, 7:21 am
I know this is a little far out but NAO is forecast to remain negative.

Looks like the Noreaster will only temporarily erode the High over Greenland and by the weekend the High will set back up.

With the Low off British Columbia, the Omega Block looks to build back in early next week.

GFS is hinting at something around the 8th.

Euro is hinting at a low over Lake Superior.


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP_loop.html












PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
248 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 01 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 04 2011

A DEEP CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO HUDSON BAY AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LURES THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST
THIS PERIOD.  THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE CYCLONES COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS QUICKER
AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MORE THAN THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE...SOMETHING THE GLOBAL MODELS OCCASIONALLY DO
ERRANTLY.  ALSO...THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN ARE MORE OPEN/EASTWARD
WITH PACIFIC ENERGY OFFSHORE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.  FOR THESE REASONS...DID NOT USE THE 00Z GFS THIS PERIOD.
INSTEAD...USED A 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE FOR
THE PRESSURES.   ALTHOUGH NOT USED...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A
REASONABLE ALTERNATIVE.

ROTH


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Next System around the 8th? - JAC, 12/28/2010, 7:21 am
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