Boston Discussion
Posted by
JAC on 1/3/2011, 5:04 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 PM EST MON JAN 3 2011
FRI/SAT...
NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE THEME OF A POTENTIAL STRONG
COASTAL STORM ESPECIALLY THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GEFS IS
FAIRLY STRONG ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW RESOLUTION OF THE ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER THIS SET OF GUIDANCE DELAYS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO
JUST NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE SUGGESTING MORE OF AN IMPACT TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO DELAYS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL FARTHER
OFFSHORE BUT DOES GENERATE MODEST QPF ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WITH 0.50 TO 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF...WITH LESS NORTHWARD. HPC
INFORMS US THAT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER EAST THAN
THE 12Z OP ECMWF. HOWEVER AS WE HAVE SEEN FROM PAST EVENTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND CLOSER SOLUTION SEEN IN DAYS 6-7 COMES BACK IN DAYS
2-3.
GIVEN ITS ONLY MON AND ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL ABOUT 4-5 DAYS
AWAY WILL RESIST THE LIKELY POPS FROM MAVMOS AND CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FRI-SAT. SO IN A NUTSHELL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
STRONG COASTAL OR OCEAN STORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE NE COAST BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS LOW ON POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS AND DETAILS. AS WAS
THE CASE WITH THE 12/26-27 SNOWSTORM WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AS
THE EVENT NEARS AND THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THUS PATIENCE
AND STAY TUNED!
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 419 PM
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA |
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