93P could hit New Zealand, New Caledonia could take direct hit
Posted by JAC on 1/11/2011, 6:51 am
http://www.3news.co.nz/Tropical-cyclone-could-hit-New-Zealand/tabid/423/articleID/193933/Default.aspx




WTPS21 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 171.3E TO 24.6S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100100Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
170.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102130Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A
POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING
IT TO A MINIMUM 35-KT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. DUE TO THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
120200Z.//
NNNN






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93P could hit New Zealand, New Caledonia could take direct hit - JAC, 1/11/2011, 6:51 am
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