Boston discussion
Posted by JAC on 1/20/2011, 3:17 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
*POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MID WEEK

BASED ON 2 METER TEMPS...HAVE EDGED TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BOS AND PVD HAVE A SHOT
OF MAKING IT TO 0 SUN NIGHT...AND SOME OF OUR NW VALLEYS MAY REACH
-20 SUN NIGHT GIVEN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH NORTH SURFACE
DRAINAGE...DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER A SOLID SNOW COVER.
WILL NOTE THE COLD TEMPS IN THE HWO.

OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WINTER STORM IN THE TUE NIGHT AND WED TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE EVENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
BUT WITH LARGE VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO
THE OTHER. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INSIDE OF
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT PHASE THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS AND KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SE OF THE
BENCHMARK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN SPACE AND
TIME...WITH MOST MEMBERS SE OF THE BENCHMARK. NOTED THAT THE 00Z
GFS HANDLES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY VERY DIFFERENTLY FROM ITS
PRIOR RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS COLDER THAT ITS PRIOR
RUN...BUT TEMPS STILL LOOK TOO WARM FOR THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEPICTED. ALL THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIOR
FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT.

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Heads up Fred - JAC, 1/20/2011, 1:12 pm
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