RI this afternoon
Posted by JAC on 1/26/2011, 6:33 am
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
334 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 28 2011

THE ONGOING STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING
WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN...ALL WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP
THE EAST COAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE
PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CAUSING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMMA-HEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. WHILE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM EDGES NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER POTENT IN STRENGTH...A ROUGHLY 3 TO 6
HOUR BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GENERATING A SWATH OF 6 TO
12 INCHES BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR PLACES LIKE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL LIKELY STAY ALL SNOW...HOWEVER LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONE
DISTURBANCE IN PARTICULAR WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MICHIGAN
AND INDIANA...EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS.

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Thursday 1/27 System - JAC, 1/24/2011, 7:32 am
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