Mon Forecast
Posted by JAC on 2/18/2011, 8:21 am
Morning Pat:

So far it looks like heavy rain and maybe moderate severe weather.

Not a lot of GOM juice will drive this and could see capping most the day.

So far, the worst part is showing up to be late Sat / early Sun to the west.



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 180946
  SPC AC 180946
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0346 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011
 
  VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  FORECAST MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
  THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
  MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW FROM
  THE SRN PLAINS EWD.
 
  ON MON/D4...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
  TO AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY AS FAR
  N AS TN/KY...WITH LOWER 60S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER..A
  RATHER COOL BOUNDARY LAYER/POOR SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES WILL SEVERELY
  LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES.
  STILL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR
  PRIMARILY FROM NRN MS/NERN AR INTO TN AND KY...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO
  LOW FOR ANY AREAS AT THIS TIME.
 
  MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD BY THU/D7 AS AN ELONGATED UPPER
  LEVEL JET STREAK AND HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
  FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER SEVERE
  POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT...DUE TO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
  RETURN WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS. A SEVERE AREA COULD BE NEEDED FOR
  PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO ERN TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS
  DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AS FOR D8...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
  TO REMAIN THE SAME...WITH GULF MOISTURE LURKING NOT TOO FAR AWAY AS
  COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS REMAIN SHORT LIVED OVER THE WATER.
 
  ..JEWELL.. 02/18/2011




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Hey JAC-- just a weather question - freesong, 2/14/2011, 11:21 am
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