Winds may be under forecasted as per latest disscussion!!!!!!!!
Posted by Fred on 2/25/2011, 8:45 am
Gust to 60mph and may be under forecasted!!!!!!!!


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AT 12Z A 993 HPA SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KAGC-KLBE...WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
FALLS APPROACHING 7 MB TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD TAKE THE LOW
ON A TRACK FARTHER NW THAN ANY MODEL SOLUTION...WITH THE RUC THE
CLOSEST TO THIS IDEA. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY WRONG WITH THEIR SFC
LOW TRACK DUE TO THEM NOT HAVING ENOUGH UPSTREAM RIDGING (BASED ON
COMPARING THEIR 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST OVER NY/PA/NJ TO RUC
ANALYSIS). IF THIS TREND HOLDS...THEN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARELIKELY UNDER FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THENORTHERN INTERIOR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH IMPLICATIONS TOWIND HEADLINES...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL - COULD BE MOREWIDESPREAD - STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF TRENDS HOLD. IN
THE SHORT TERM...HAVE UPDATED HOURLY WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS - WINDS WERE INCREASED
A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SOON...AND NE FLOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUND HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES AT LGA BEING HELD IN THE UPPER
30S...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE S SHORE OF LONG ISLAND HAVE WARMED A
TAD FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY ON RADAR TO THE N
AND W ARE BRIGHT BANDING AND NOT CONVECTION.

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High Wind Watch---Gust to 60mph possible once again - Fred, 2/24/2011, 7:32 am
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