Severe Outlook
Posted by JAC on 3/3/2011, 7:16 am



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1144 PM CST WED MAR 02 2011
 
  VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK...AR...SRN MO...
 
  ...OZARKS/ERN OK/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AS A
  BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY BRINGS MOISTURE
  NWD INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
  SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS. AHEAD OF THE
  BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A CAPPED AIRMASS
  IN PLACE FROM OK AND WRN AR SWD TO THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CAP
  SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING AS
  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
  ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO ERN OK
  WITH THE LINE GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. MODEL
  FORECASTS SUGGEST THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN A FEW AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT
  OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
  WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
  CELLS IN THE LINE.
 
  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
  FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID
  60S F. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MS AND SRN LA
  ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR NEW
  ORLEANS AFTER 06Z SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING
  THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MODEL
  FORECASTS DIFFER CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
  THE GFS FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE NAM. FOR THIS
  REASON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WILL
  MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT ATTM.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 03/03/2011
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JAC... Friday / Saturday ... What the heck?? - Anung Mwka, 3/1/2011, 9:24 pm
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