KS: Triple Point
Posted by JAC on 4/2/2011, 11:24 pm
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1230 PM CDT SAT APR 02 2011
 
  VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS
  VALLEY TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
 
  ...MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
  AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL
  AMPLIFY/ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD IN A POSITIVE-TILT FASHION FROM THE
  NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
  CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH A STRONG
  ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGGRESSIVELY
  RETURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH AID OF A 50-70 KT
  SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. GENERALLY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
  WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PRE-COLD
  FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY.
 
  THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED TSTM
  DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...INITIAL DEEP
  CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
  EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHWEST
  IL AND NORTHERN MO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE
  INTERSECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
 
  WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM
  SECTOR...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMID 50-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID
  LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL MODE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
  LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATEST
  PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
  EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL/NORTHEAST MO. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
  UNFOLD AS WELL DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS AS STORMS
  CONGEAL/BOWS EVOLVE AMIDST NOCTURNALLY REINVIGORATED FLOW WITHIN THE
  LOWEST FEW KM /70+ KT AT 850 MB/. WHILE A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
  WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OR MORE LIKELY FAST
  MOVING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION/BOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST BOUNDARY
  LAYER MOISTURE/ASSOCIATED DECOUPLING IMPLIES AN INCREASINGLY MORE
  ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
  MIDWEST.
 
  FARTHER S/SW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEP CONVECTIVE
  INITIATION PRE-EARLY EVENING/ROUGHLY PRE-03Z IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AMID
  A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STOUT CAP. IN TERMS OF NUMERICAL
  GUIDANCE...ONLY SOME WRF-ARW MEMBERSHIP OF THE 09Z SREF SUPPORTS
  ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
  DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK/NORTH TX...WITH OTHER/TRADITIONAL
  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATIVE OF LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-DARK
  INITIATION. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE
  DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RELATIVELY STRONG
  INSTABILITY/HIGHLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
  CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH A TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY LIMITED
  BY A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
  IS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST
  ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.
 
  ..GUYER.. 04/02/2011
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Sunday: possible severe outbreak. Strong tornadoes OK & N TX - JAC, 4/2/2011, 8:47 am
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