Eyeing a TX Hooker for the Weekend
Posted by JAC on 4/11/2011, 1:25 pm
So far GFS does not dig the surface low deep but 500mb looks potent with a negative tilt.

Looks like it may phase with a lee-low coming off the Rockies.

Keep an eye on the models how this pans out.

Texas Hookers can be a terror for the mid-west this time of year.

One way to keep all the CaneTalker boys happy.



PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
932 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 12Z FRI APR 15 2011 - 12Z MON APR 18 2011

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG PACIFIC FLOW REACHING THE WRN
CONUS LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SHOULD CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW
THAT TRACKS OVER THE MID-UPR MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS/OH
VLY/NORTHEAST BY FRI ONWARD.  EVEN WITH EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE
THERE IS REASONABLE CLUSTERING TOWARD MAINTAINING A MODERATE ERN
CONUS MEAN TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FLAT MEAN RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ERN PAC INTO THE WRN CONUS.  BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR DAYS 3-7 /THU-MON/
SUPPORTS A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE FCST... DOWNPLAYING MINORITY
ASPECTS OF GUIDANCE WITH INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING NEWD FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY THU-FRI
ONWARD... THE 00Z UKMET/06Z GFS SHOW THE DEEPEST SFC DEVELOPMENT
BY FRI-SAT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD.
THE 00Z GFS WAITS UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES SERN CANADA TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE UKMET HAS HAD A TENDENCY TOWARD
EXCESSIVE SFC DEVELOPMENT WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS AND RECENT GFS
RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW DEPTH.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AS A WHOLE LEANS MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA BUT VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS ALOFT DO OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SYSTEM.













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Eyeing a TX Hooker for the Weekend - JAC, 4/11/2011, 1:25 pm
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