IN Watch coming up
Posted by JAC on 4/26/2011, 1:52 pm



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1226 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN OH AND
  SOUTHERN LOWER MI
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 261726Z - 261900Z
 
  THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
  EVENTUALLY WESTERN OH. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS
  OF THE REGION.
 
  AS THE BRUNT OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT
  NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDDAY  SURFACE
  ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH AN
  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
  MS VALLEY. ALONG/EAST OF A COLD FRONT AMID A REGION OF LOW LEVEL
  CONFLUENCE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN
  INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN IL INTO
  MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN OH AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE MODEST
  CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH UPPER 50S F SURFACE
  DEWPOINTS. AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC
  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL YIELD FAST NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING
  TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE
  OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE
  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
 
  ..GUYER.. 04/26/2011
 
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Todays out break - Fred, 4/26/2011, 11:58 am
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