Two features I am watching
Posted by JAC on 5/6/2011, 8:43 pm
MIMIC_TPW, AKA the Juice Loop, already looks pretty good.

Already seeing some nice amplification of waves as they get in the Carib.

Only thing holding back TC development right now is wind shear due in part by recurring TUTTs at about 30N 55W.

320K PV shows how they spin off the troughs that sweep across CONUS.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/janiga/rtmaps/plan_maps/nam/320K_pv_wind/320K_pv_wind.html


This will stop when the air warms up to about 10 or 11C, over the southern part of the CONUS, at the level just above the boundary-layer (700mb).

That basically creates a boundary layer inversion that inhibits convection from developing along the fronts; this is also known as capping.

That in turns weakens the spinup of potential vorticity and down the road kills the TUTTs in the Atlantic.


So, I was looking at the models for this weeks upcoming severe event.

Sure enough, already seeing some pretty good capping across TX and the deep south.

Old King TUTT may die an early death and then the TC machine will be open for business.

I think we are going all out this year:

19/10/6 with major landfalls for at least two large CONUS cities: Mobile or NOLA, and Jacksonville or Savannah.  Houston, Miami, & Tampa should be good.







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The Case for An Early Season Tropical Storm - ArgosyTn, 5/6/2011, 6:05 pm
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