Bowing Squall Line heading to East TN
Posted by JAC on 5/13/2011, 1:43 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1122 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN...AND SERN KY
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 131622Z - 131815Z
 
  STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED
  STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
 
  EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN KY SSWWD THROUGH ERN TN AND
  NERN AL IS MOVING EAST 25-30 KT. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST
  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM
  1000-1500 J/KG...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. BOTH
  OBSERVED AND PFC DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP REMAINING AS SURFACE
  TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY CONTINUE
  DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES EWD NEXT FEW
  HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL
  CONVECTION. THE MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES COULD ULTIMATELY
  SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST THREAT...BUT THE
  STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND
  GUSTS AND HAIL.
 
  ..DIAL.. 05/13/2011








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Bowing Squall Line heading to East TN - JAC, 5/13/2011, 1:43 pm
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