MCS Bowing Out
Posted by JAC on 5/23/2011, 2:57 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1237 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL/IND
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340...
 
  VALID 231737Z - 231900Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340
  CONTINUES.
 
  FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SWATH OF DAMAGING
  WINDS EAST OF THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA IN PARTS OF SRN IL THROUGH
  19Z. THIS SEGMENT MAY REACH THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 340 BY 19Z...WITH
  THE PROBABILITY OF A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE AT 80 PERCENT.
 
  AS OF 1730Z...BOWING LINE SEGMENT WITH A MEAN FORWARD PROPAGATION
  SPEED OF 50-55 KT HAD REACH THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA WITH A 54 KT
  GUST MEASURED AT KSTL. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
  MAINTAINING THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS SRN IL. STRONG NEARLY
  UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS /AS SAMPLED BY WINCHESTER IL
  PROFILER/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AND
  INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN RECENT SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
 
  ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
  THE RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND WHERE CU FIELD HAS INCREASED
  PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THE BOWING LINE
  AND/OR ADDITIONAL TSTM INITIATION WILL NECESSITATE A DOWNSTREAM
  SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 19Z.
 
  ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011





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Indy, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus Under-the-Gun - JAC, 5/23/2011, 8:37 am
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