Perspective: Deadliest Tornado Year Since 1953
Posted by JAC on 5/23/2011, 4:50 pm
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/deadly-year-tornadoes-perspective_2011-05-23


Updated: May 23, 2011 4:30 pm ET
First...it was a mid-April three-day outbreak, with tornadoes near the Jackson, Miss. metro, then through Raleigh, N.C.

Then, an awful late April outbreak culminating with almost 250 tornadoes over a 4-day period, including Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Ala.

Now...a destructive weekend of tornadoes including a monster tornado that may have been over one mile-wide slicing through Joplin, Mo.


Let's shed some perspective on this deadly tornadic spring 2011.


Not since the 1950s!

TWC Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes now says the Joplin, Mo. tornado is the deadliest single U.S. tornado in 64 years, since 181 were killed in Woodward, Okla. on Apr. 9, 1947.

In fact, there have been only 8 tornadoes documented in U.S. history that have claimed more lives than the Joplin, Mo. tornado!

Top 10 deadliest tornadoes

Mar. 18, 1925 (Tri-State Tornado): 695
May 6, 1840 (Natchez, Miss.): 317
May 27, 1896 (St. Louis, Mo.): 255
Apr. 5, 1936 (Tupelo, Miss.): 216
Apr. 6, 1936 (Gainesville, Ga.): 203
Apr. 9, 1947 (Woodward, Okla.): 181
Apr. 24, 1908 (Amite, La., Purvis, Miss.): 143
Jun. 12, 1899 (New Richmond, Wisc.): 117
May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo.): 116
Jun. 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich.): 115

According to preliminary stats from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we're now pushing toward 500 U.S. tornado deaths in 2011. The last year we saw as many as 400 tornado fatalities was 1953 (519 fatalities)!

As you can see in the graph below, there have been only 6 other years since 1875 with over 500 U.S. tornado deaths documented!





We have now had 2 of the top 10 deadliest tornado days in U.S. history this year! Below is the list from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Keep in mind the tally from April 27, 2011 is still preliminary and subject to change.

Top 10 deadliest tornado days

April 27, 2011 (Ala., Tenn., Ga., Miss., Va.): 315
April 3, 1974 ("Super Outbreak"): 307
April 11, 1965 ("Palm Sunday Outbreak"): 260
March 21, 1952: 202
June 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich., etc.): 142
May 11, 1953 (Waco, Tex, etc.): 127
Feb. 21, 1971: 121
May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo...Mpls./St. Paul, Minn.): 117
May 25, 1955 (Udall, Kan., etc.): 102
June 9, 1953 (Worcester, Mass.): 90


Why is this happening?

Severe storm forecasting has come a long way since the mid-twentieth century. The very things we take for granted today: watches and warnings, spotter networks, Doppler radar, the internet, an active news media disseminating warnings were, of course, largely absent prior to the 1950s and 60s.

The graph below shows U.S. tornado deaths, this time normalized for every million people. You can see the steady decline since the 1920s (Tri-State tornado killed over 700) through roughly 2000.







U.S. tornado deaths per million people 1875 - Early 2000s
Image: NOAA

Unfortunately, the sad truth is we've had several tornadoes track through larger cities so far this spring (Raleigh, N.C., Tuscaloosa, Ala., Birmingham, Ala., St. Louis, Mo., Joplin, Mo.), not to mention the many smaller towns affected (Lenox, Ia., e.g.).

Similar to hurricanes, often with tornadoes it's often not "how many", but "where they track" that is important!

Intense tornadoes (especially EF4 and stronger) tracking through large metropolitan area will continue to be deadly in the future. To survive those tornadoes, you need to be underground and/or in a reinforced concrete building in an interior room.



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2011: A Record Year of Tornadoes - JAC, 4/27/2011, 8:24 am
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