Strong Uncapped STP in AR
Posted by
JAC on 5/25/2011, 12:29 pm
Will be moving NE and convection could fire in a few hours.
Again, SREF was not showing it in this morning's run.

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN MO...WRN AND NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251454Z - 251630Z STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN WRN MO AND WRN AR. AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY. INITIALLY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF STORM INITIATION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER ERN KS WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MO AND ACROSS ALL OF AR INTO MS AND WRN TN. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BUT THE CAP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MO AND WRN AR AROUND 17Z...SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD ACROSS SE MO AND NE AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 65 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE MCD AREA BY 18Z TO 21Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 350 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
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In this thread:
Mid MS-River Area under High-Risk for Severe Weather Today -
JAC,
5/25/2011, 9:01 am- IN dodged a bullet. Looks like no fatalities. - JAC, 5/26/2011, 6:14 am
- Indy TV streaming damage - IndyDave, 5/25/2011, 9:26 pm
- Strong violent tornadoes expected next 2 to 4 hrs - JAC, 5/25/2011, 4:42 pm
- PDS 2 - JAC, 5/25/2011, 1:50 pm
- St Louis Under-the-Gun - JAC, 5/25/2011, 1:07 pm
- Live Feed - JAC, 5/25/2011, 4:44 pm
- Funnel spotted near mall - JAC, 5/25/2011, 4:38 pm
- Sedalia, MO just took a hit - JAC, 5/25/2011, 2:42 pm
- Tornadic cells building and approaching St Louis - JAC, 5/25/2011, 2:14 pm
- Re: St Louis Under-the-Gun - ArgosyTn, 5/25/2011, 1:26 pm
- Strong Uncapped STP in AR - JAC, 5/25/2011, 12:29 pm
- Re: Strong Uncapped STP in AR - ArgosyTn, 5/25/2011, 1:46 pm
- Long-tack tornadoes expected. Another PDS coming up. - JAC, 5/25/2011, 1:14 pm
- MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS FORECAST - JAC, 5/25/2011, 12:50 pm
- Large-area PDS up - JAC, 5/25/2011, 12:37 pm
- Here's the current STP - JAC, 5/25/2011, 12:30 pm
- IN later this morning - JAC, 5/25/2011, 9:50 am
- Memphis: NAM at 21Z - JAC, 5/25/2011, 9:29 am
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