Backed Off
Posted by JAC on 5/29/2011, 7:01 am
GFS has pooped out the huge mid-level low off the CA coast.

Now looks like the only severe weather this week will be Monday in the Mid-Plains.













DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1244 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
 
  VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
  AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
 
  UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD ALONG THE W COAST WILL REACH THE
  CNTRL ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE
  NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY LATER MONDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
  WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
  WITHIN JET EXIT REGION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. A WARM
  FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE
  COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...REACHING THE
  UPPER MS VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
 
  ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
 
  ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
  DAKOTAS INTO MN EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT NWD DURING THE DAY. IT
  STILL APPEARS THE MORNING STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY SLOW THE NWD
  PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...RICHER MOISTURE WITH LOW-MID
  60S DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT THROUGH EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
  INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BENEATH NEWD ADVECTING WARM
  EML RESULTING IN MODERATE MLCAPE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE EML WITH 700
  MB TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 12 C...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
  REMAIN CAPPED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN...AND
  STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS
  DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION OVERTAKES
  THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 50-60
  KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT NATURE OF THE FORCING AND WIND
  PROFILES SUGGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS
  AS THEY DEVELOP TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A MULTIFACETED THREAT
  WILL EXIST INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
  TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.
 
  ...OK AND WRN TX...
 
  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR
  ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN TX. A STRONG EML WILL CAP THE BOUNDARY
  LAYER...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX
  WITHIN ZONE OF MIXING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE
  AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF STRONGER 700-500
  MB FLOW...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH LEVEL WINDS. PRIMARY THREAT
  WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH OUTFLOW DOMINANT
  SUPERCELLS. STORMS COVERAGE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX IS EXPECTED TO
  BE MORE LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THERE AND
  CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER
  OUTLOOKS.
 
  ..DIAL.. 05/29/2011






















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Something Huge maybe forming end of next week - JAC, 5/26/2011, 11:54 am
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