HPC's thoughts on heavy rain
Posted by CypressTX on 6/7/2011, 12:32 pm
atm... are to the east of FL, while the low goes over south FL & gives most of the state some precip, less in the bend area it looks like

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html



...DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES/FL...

A BROAD/LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LWR MS VLY/TN VLY ON WED/THU. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/COASTAL WATERS TO ADVECT MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE GULF STATES...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WHERE DEEP LL MOISTURE/PWS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES DEVELOPS. THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE LIGHT MEANING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY ON WED. DOWN IN FL... THE NAM INTENSIFIED THE WEAKNESS LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND DRAWING UP MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAN THE OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AND HPC
FOLLOWED MORE OF A ECMWF/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTH WITH MODEST QPF AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT.

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Snapcast - Doorman, 6/6/2011, 3:48 pm
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