Re: PDS Up. High-Risk of Tornadoes
Posted by JAC on 6/20/2011, 3:46 pm




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0219 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO
  SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...
 
  VALID 201919Z - 202045Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.
 
  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH
  AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK EXPECTED TO PERSIST/INCREASE ESPECIALLY
  FROM FAR NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH MID/LATE
  AFTERNOON.
 
  AN IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES IS ONGOING IN
  NORTHWEST KS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL CITY AREA AS OF 1915Z...WITH A
  LIKELY REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT INDUCED GUST ALSO NOTED PER A RECENT 46
  KT WESTERLY GUST AT HLC. AS A 991 MB ANALYZED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
  NORTHERN KS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...A VERY TORNADO
  CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IMMEDIATELY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
  SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY A SSW-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
  EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND A NEIGHBORING
  WEST-EAST WARM FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
  NEB.
 
  IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL...AND PERHAPS OTHER
  SURFACE BASED VIGOROUS/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WILL POSE AN
  APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB FROM 20-22Z AND
  BEYOND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF
  HOLDREGE AND KEARNEY...AND NEAR/WEST OF HASTINGS INCLUDING THE
  MINDEN AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
  SITUATION. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
  CONCERN.
 
  ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011
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Strong Tornado Risk for Nebraska Sunday - JAC, 6/18/2011, 3:42 pm
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