Emily Evening Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/2/2011, 1:14 am
The disturbance had been struggling throughout most of the day, with little organization. However, during the late afternoon, convection began to form near one of several swirls near the NW portion of the system. It now appears that, most of the cyclonic turning in the cloud pattern was in the mid-levels with an interverted trough under the vortmax, but no low level closed circulation. Therefore, scattered -numerous convection was fired through large scale ascent and /upper divergence.
Convective pulses were most noticeable during the diurnal pulse and deminish with the stablization of the afternoon heating over the tropical ocean surface. In addition, an area of very dry air was being entrianed through the mid-level vortex. This maintained 91L as an open wave with a buckle in the stream flow.
Emily has become better organized this evening as the cloud pattern is more symmetrical and convection although not directly under the LLC is vigorous with -80c temps. In addition, two strong curved feeder bands have developed. One in the NE quad and the other in the SE quad. This is important in a tropical system as strong advection of latent heat is drawn from a great distance from the center. The strong inflow should gradually neutralize the dry air north of the system. Furthrmore, the large disturbance south of Emily this morning has become sheared eastward and this moisture is being entrained in the storm.
Finally, she should continue to strengthen under a more established upper high during the next 48hr. This high will expand north to south and develop a strong outflow channel to the west and east of Emily. Shear will lesson over her mesoscale complex as great ventilation, increasing OHC and moistening environment over the SW atlantic will help her increase on her track.
She should continue just north of due west another 24-36hrs and slow her forward motion to 10-13mph. My thinking is a turn NW near western Haiti and into the south- central bahamas. As for the US, it all depends on the trough versus the re-building high. Florida appears to be the first US strike. |
288
In this thread:
Emily Evening Analysis - Jake, 8/2/2011, 1:14 am Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.