Re: East side of Hispaniola is the easy side
Posted by
DTB_2009 on 8/2/2011, 9:34 pm
If she gets to 71.0W before she gets to 17.5N she would graze the southernmost tip of Hispaniola and brush the south shore of Haiti while only going across the SW Haitian peninsula. She might then begin turning a bit more poleward and pass just east or over Guantanamo.
This path would not take much out of her and most intensity models show steady and somewhat rapid intensification once she clears Cuba. A 90 to 100 knot cane over the Bahamas and possibly very near or over Florida would not be out of the question.
Bascially a path 40 to 50 miles left of the current official NHC forecast track is what this would be.
The 17.5 / 71 benchmark could be key for Emily's future.
Obviously she could be torn apart if she goes over more land especially the higher terrain. This is all still highly uncertain - especially the intensity if/when she approaches Florida or Northern Bahamas. |
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