From Dr Jeff Masters....
Posted by
Shalista on 8/3/2011, 8:39 am
The 12Z UKMET global model, and the 18Z GFDL and HWRF dynamical models are west of the GFS/CMC consensus track, withe the GFDL keeping Emily over the western Bahamas. The HWRF and UKMET tracks stay very close to the Florida/Georgia coastlines.
However, all of these tracks require Emily's circulation to grow tall enough that the upper-level steering winds can pull Emily towards the NW. I've discussed the situation with Angela Fritz, and she thinks that if Emily's circulation remains shallow, a more westerly track like that described by the ECMWF and NOGAPS could be more likely.
If we look at the previous NHC forecast, Emily was expected to be at 15.9N, 66.5W at the time of the forecast update. This is approximately 25 miles southeast of Emily's current position. If we ignore the uncertainty of locating Emily's center, this suggests that the westerly ECMWF/NOGAPS track is less likely, but doesn't say much about deciding between the GFS/GFDL and UKMET/HWRF tracks.
My opinion about forecasting Emily's intensity has not changed from this morning's update. I would prefer to wait for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. If Emily's circulation can survive the 8000 feet tall mountains of Hispaniola, the sea is warm enough for moderate intensification.
Having taken all of this into consideration, the 5 day NHC track forecast splits the difference between the HWRF/UKMET and GFS/GFDL tracks, bringing Emily over the central Bahamas before recurving towards the northeast. Emily is also forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday, August 7. However, it is important to remember that NHC has said that the forecast uncertainty after 48 hours is larger than usual for Emily. So, people living on the East Coast should still not think they are in the clear just yet.
In terms of immediate impacts, 4-6 inches of rain are expected over Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, with 10 inches possible in isolated areas.
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From Dr Jeff Masters.... - Shalista, 8/3/2011, 8:39 am Post A Reply
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