The Guidance
Posted by
Jackstraw on 8/3/2011, 11:11 pm
<Seriously, read that discussion. What or who is "The Guidance"? That discussion sounds almost like a 60's sci-fi movie. "The Guidance says...." . WTF? I want to know who this "Guidance" thing is and have a word lol!
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER. THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING EMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION. AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS. OVERALL... THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THOSE TIMES. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RUN TO RUN. IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE. |
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