The Guidance
Posted by Jackstraw on 8/3/2011, 11:11 pm
<Seriously, read that discussion.  What or who is "The Guidance"?  That discussion sounds almost like a 60's sci-fi movie.  "The Guidance says...."  .  WTF?
I want to know who this "Guidance" thing is and have a word lol!

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT
TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER.  THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING
EMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES
AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS.  OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW
FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.  

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL
CHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN TO RUN.  IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.  
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The Guidance - Jackstraw, 8/3/2011, 11:11 pm
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