Emily Late Night Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/4/2011, 1:21 am
Emily's increase in convection is do to several factors.
1. The slowing of the forward speed.
2. Decrease in vertical shear.
3. Higher moisture levels and infeed.
4. The all mighty duirnal pulse
See Image...
Although shear continues, its decreased enough as slight fanning of the cirrus canopy can be seen on the western quad where shear was SW in the upper levels and WNW the mid- levels.
Now the bigger test of terrain interaction begins tomorrow. But, the current track over Western Haiti is not as intense as moving through central Hispaniola. Therefore, the small center will be briefly passing over the western Haitian Peninsula with some weaking and then be over the Mona Passage where OHC is high and finally over Eastern Cuba.
Assuming this maintains a vigorous vorticity and emerges into the high OHC waters in the Bahamas and especially off the S. Florida.(Gulf Stream). Which are the warmest waters till landfall anywhere in the CONUS. Per NHC, Emily should strengthen, it all depends on how favorable the upper air environment becomes.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html |
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