Disturbance near 13.5N 47W Analysis
Posted by Jake on 8/7/2011, 1:32 pm
The disturbance / low pressure system has a well defined cyclonic turning in the cloud field with some spiral infeed, but lacks convection near the center swirl now exposed. The swirl is the trigger to fire convection once the it taps into higher OHC passed 50W. See image loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

The low pressure swirl had a small area of convection overnight sheared off by 15-20kt easterly winds. In addition, a large area of saharan air is following the system. Conditions are maginal for some slow development as it moves west over warmer waters, but convection must increase for this to have a chance and easterly shear decrease. Lastly, the 850mb-700 vortex are moderate, but convection will help  increase. No models develop the low at this time.

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Disturbance near 13.5N 47W Analysis - Jake, 8/7/2011, 1:32 pm
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