updated thur am
Posted by
CypressTX on 8/11/2011, 10:06 am
gotta love his "no-sensationalism" style
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/
UPDATED: 8:35 am EDT, August 11, 2011 by Mark Sudduth
SEVERAL AREAS TO WATCH BUT NONE POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT
The tropics are becoming more active which is right in line with what is expected this time of year. We have three distinct areas to monitor so let's look at them one at a time:
Area #1: Southeast coast disturbance. A very weak area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the last day or two off the Southeast coast and lingers today. There may be some potential for this to organize and become a tropical depression as it moves to the east-northeast and gets kicked out to sea. It will not pose any problems for the Florida coast or points north.
Area #2: 92L west of the Cape Verde Islands. This is one feature that fairly strong model support for continued development as it moves off to the west-northwest over the open Atlantic. The current environment is good but not ideal for development and it may take another day and a half for it to become a tropical depression. The NHC's SHIPS intensity model keeps it below hurricane strength probably due to unfavorable upper level winds along its path. I don't see much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles from this system but it cannot be ignored. Assuming it does develop, the forecast steering pattern by the global models strongly argues for a turn out to sea well east of the United States and the Bahamas. There is just not enough western extent of the subtropical ridge right now. In short, the Bermuda High is weak and will not allow anything to get past about 65 degrees west longitude. Until this pattern changes, and it might sooner or later, there will be little chance of impact from the deep tropics to the Southeast or East Coast.
Area #3: 93L just west of the African coast. The next area to really keep an eye on is 93L off the west coast of Africa. It is located at a fairly low latitude, around 10N. The GFS model in particular is very agressive in developing this system as is the latest NHC SHIPS model- it brings 93L to hurricane intensity within three days. No worries though, it will be at least a week before any issues arise for the Lesser Antilles if at all. As I mentioned above, the current weak Bermuda High set up will turn just about everything coming in from the east well out to sea unless we see a pattern change. It is way too soon to know if in fact we will get a change that would force these systems more west. For now, we just have to watch and see what happens as these two tropical waves track westward. I'll have more here tomorrow morning with occasional updates on Twitter and Facebook beforehand. |
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