Derek Ortt's Aug 12th thoughts
Posted by
CypressTX on 8/13/2011, 6:58 am
Derek Ortt's blog
A depression and a bunch of disturbance, but no land threats
8/12/2011 8:04 PM EDT Tags: dortt
There is a new tropical depression in the Atlantic. However, it is not one of the two tropical waves that have been monitored. Instead, a frontal low formed north of Bermuda. It has detached itself from the front and has become a tropical cyclone. The depression is very near tropical storm status and will likely become a storm later tonight or tomorrow morning. The system is moving to the east-northeast, into the open north Atlantic. No land areas will be threatened by the depression.
The next area of interest is an area of low pressure a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. This is also an area of an old front that has been moving to the west-southwest. This area has a well-defined surface circulation. The showers and thunderstorms are not well organized. That said, this system has a good chance to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next couple of days. Most model guidance indicates a track away from land areas.
The next area of interest is a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. This system has become better organized today. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined mid level circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity is increasing near this mid level center. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days. However, this system is expected to move to the west-northwest and pass well north of the Leeward Islands. Therefore, the system poses no immediate threat to land areas.
The final area of interest is a weak area of low pressure a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Models had been very aggressive in developing this system over the past couple of days. However, the models have since backed off and indicate no development through the next several days. Given the very disorganized nature of this disturbance, this seems like a likely outcome. The system is expected to track into the Caribbean during the middle part of next week. However, the latest indications are that it will as a wave. Development is more likely once it is in the Caribbean than prior to reaching the Caribbean.
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Derek Ortt's Aug 12th thoughts - CypressTX, 8/13/2011, 6:58 am Post A Reply
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