Got this from Cent Fl Hurricane board
Posted by
Shalista on 8/17/2011, 11:34 pm
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM
TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE
ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD
FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS
THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW
GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF
SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM
ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
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Got this from Cent Fl Hurricane board - Shalista, 8/17/2011, 11:34 pm
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