97L Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/18/2011, 1:12 pm
A very large and well defined tropical wave / low pressure area is located near 15N-40W. An extensive area of strato- cumulus can be seen on visible / infrared sat loops rotating for several hundred miles into the enlongated center( This is one of the largest waves I've seen in some time). Normally, a system this size takes time to develop and without question, it will take it's time. In addtion, a scale area of dry Saharan air surrounds the disturbance and this clearly has hindered convection, however during the last several hours some increase in scattered thunder storms have formed on the westside of the system.
Currently, the OHC is low and SST's are marginal. But, both gradually increase further west. As for track and strengthening all of the reliable global models form a TC from 97L in the coming days, but not until it passes 50-55W. The general track takes this into the Northern Antilles and PR by late this weekend under a more conducive atmosphere. The GFS lifts an upper level trough/ TUTT north of PR and replaces it with an upper level high into the extended which would favor strengthening. Lastly, the higher levels of latent heat further west will help destablize the planetary layer and increase convection around the moderate 850-500mb vortex.
Note: Large systems that originate from this part of the basin, typically become strong TC. |
259
In this thread:
97L Analysis - Jake, 8/18/2011, 1:12 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.