Re: Latest model runs on 97L ....
Posted by
Jackstraw on 8/19/2011, 10:41 am
From the Dallas NWS...
THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST OF THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS...
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE SAMEBUT THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS IMPRESSED AS IT HAS BEEN REGARDING THE 500 HEIGHTS FALLS
OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS WOULD
BE UNDER VERY WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH REALLY WOULDNT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES/COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION IT HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 500 MB
WITH A TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WOULD SEND A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS COULD
SIGNAL A SHIFT OR TREND IN THE OUTPUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD BE INFLUENCED BY ALL OF THIS
IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WITH A TRACK RANGING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK WOULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO CLOSELY
WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMPUTER MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A
HARD TIME FORECASTING A POTENTIAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT STILL HASNT DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ANY
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION PROGGED BY A MODEL RUN SHOULD BE TAKEN
WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. |
107
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Latest model runs on 97L .... -
LawKat,
8/19/2011, 9:20 am Post A Reply
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