Re: Jet Stream forecast
Posted by
Conclue on 8/22/2011, 1:29 am
Yeah the shortwave trough isnt really deep enough to directly influence Irene's track, however it does limit the potential of either ridge (Central US/Atlantic) building either way in between that space of the eastern CONUS which allows Ireene to move. Her strengthening and interaction to land is gonna be the key player heres, if the pattern indeed is like this in 5 days. I'm sorry but we're still not *THAT* good at 3 -5 days out in forecasting. The skill drops alot, especially when relying on numerical weather forecasts and guidance. Many time it's the skill of the operational forecasters that allow for 3 - 5 days not to be that bad but soley basing a forecast on a model that many days out is still touch and go. It's an "idea" of what the pattner could be. Irene could ride right through along either coast of FL, totally miss Florida making a stronger hit in SC and riding up through the mid-atlantic as a strong or even major Hurricane. It may become a blob of convection that never reorganizes after Hispanola.
I think we'll have a really good idea what we can really see occuring either late tomorrow night or Tuesday. Then the picture will come into focus.
3 days either way is ample time to get prepared. Don't wait till Jim is on TV being blown away by 120kt winds. |
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Jackstraw,
8/21/2011, 9:37 pm Post A Reply
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