Track-for-the-Day
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/22/2011, 9:54 am
Not sure why the NHC left the early track so directly west with the discussion implying 290 and less Hisp interaction. It was right of the track when it left PR. The HWF models are looking strong here, but we are back to the more traditional "how sharp turn" and "when". Even after the turn, this one looks to be very problematic IF that turn is far enough west. If it is more inline with the HWF, it's really hard to see enough NE turn to curve her away and it looks like our problem in S.C.. The new FIN model seems to be the source of the NHC forecast, but that might be because it looks like (??) a consensus model and is splitting GFD and HWF components. As a model tracker, I'd go with that in an ever-shifting way as the system keeps gaining more latitude than it shows. As a pure storm tracker, there is nothing at all to keep me from coming up with a straight track like HWF...UNLESS I really did expect a building Atlantic High. I haven't heard a peep about that, have you? Of course, there are those remaining 800 MB winds above PR and HISP, but our girl seems to have outgrown their allure long ago.
Intensification is equally bipolar. The westerly track would sure seem to be the way to grow if it doesn't start until the latitude assures some safety from Hispanola. In my model-driven forecast, we would be right at the point now where I would be predicting BIG things for Irene. On the more direct line, I wouldn't expect much intensification until she slid onto the shelf (and the stream) above the Bahamas. Still, that track would suggest slowing somewhat and there's not much out there to inhabit her, I don't believe.
So, my take is straight NW and looking for signs of a H to nudge her west into the Bahamas that I don't think is coming. Cat 2-3 on that track with some scary bursts near 4 (and pretty sats) when she hits the gulf stream....Threatening Charleston but brushing M.B. and the banks as the High finally shows up with her west of it. I'd really be surprised by a westerly track in the near future that has been the S-R forecast for days and days and we have only seen sporadically, only to be neutralized by those latitude gains.
BUT...then again, I'm just a model-watcher and like the HWF. What do I know? |
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Track-for-the-Day - TuffyE, 8/22/2011, 9:54 am Post A Reply
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